Category Archives: Random

For Your Consideration : AI Breakthroughs, Survivorship Bias, Teacher as Student, and In-Flight Perspective

Here we go, feedback is appreciated. -Brad


1. The Three Breakthroughs That Have Finally Unleashed AI on the World  by Kevin Kelly and Our Machine Masters as a full-column response to it by David Brooks.

From The Three Breakthroughs:

The AI on the horizon looks more like Amazon Web Services—cheap, reliable, industrial-grade digital smartness running behind everything, and almost invisible except when it blinks off. This common utility will serve you as much IQ as you want but no more than you need. Like all utilities, AI will be supremely boring, even as it transforms the Internet, the global economy, and civilization. It will enliven inert objects, much as electricity did more than a century ago. Everything that we formerly electrified we will now cognitize. This new utilitarian AI will also augment us individually as people (deepening our memory, speeding our recognition) and collectively as a species. There is almost nothing we can think of that cannot be made new, different, or interesting by infusing it with some extra IQ. In fact, the business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast: Take X and add AI. This is a big deal, and now it’s here.

From Our Machine Masters:

In the age of smart machines, we’re not human because we have big brains. We’re human because we have social skills, emotional capacities and moral intuitions. I could paint two divergent A.I. futures, one deeply humanistic, and one soullessly utilitarian.

In the humanistic one, machines liberate us from mental drudgery so we can focus on higher and happier things. In this future, differences in innate I.Q. are less important. Everybody has Google on their phones so having a great memory or the ability to calculate with big numbers doesn’t help as much.

In this future, there is increasing emphasis on personal and moral faculties: being likable, industrious, trustworthy and affectionate. People are evaluated more on these traits, which supplement machine thinking, and not the rote ones that duplicate it.

In the cold, utilitarian future, on the other hand, people become less idiosyncratic. If the choice architecture behind many decisions is based on big data from vast crowds, everybody follows the prompts and chooses to be like each other. The machine prompts us to consume what is popular, the things that are easy and mentally undemanding.

2. Survivorship Bias by David McRaney

The military looked at the bombers that had returned from enemy territory. They recorded where those planes had taken the most damage. Over and over again, they saw the bullet holes tended to accumulate along the wings, around the tail gunner, and down the center of the body. Wings. Body. Tail gunner. Considering this information, where would you put the extra armor? Naturally, the commanders wanted to put the thicker protection where they could clearly see the most damage, where the holes clustered. But Wald said no, that would be precisely the wrong decision. Putting the armor there wouldn’t improve their chances at all. 

Do you understand why it was a foolish idea? The mistake, which Wald saw instantly, was that the holes showed where the planes were strongest. The holes showed where a bomber could be shot and still survive the flight home, Wald explained. After all, here they were, holes and all. It was the planes that weren’t there that needed extra protection, and they had needed it in places that these planes had not. The holes in the surviving planes actually revealed the locations that needed the least additional armor. Look at where the survivors are unharmed, he said, and that’s where these bombers are most vulnerable; that’s where the planes that didn’t make it back were hit.

3. Teacher takes a walk in student shoes by Alexis Wiggins

A 15 year veteran teacher is assigned to “be” a 10th grade student on one day and a 12th grade student on the following day by doing everything they are required to do. She has a surprising response and some key takeaways that other teachers, and the system itself, could benefit from.

 

Takeaway 1: Students sit all day, and sitting is exhausting.

Takeaway 2: High school students are sitting passively and listening during approximately 90 percent of their classes.

Takeaway 3: You feel a little bit like a nuisance all day long.

She concludes with the following:

I have a lot more respect and empathy for students after just one day of being one again. Teachers work hard, but I now think that conscientious students work harder. I worry about the messages we send them as they go to our classes and home to do our assigned work, and my hope is that more teachers who are able will try this shadowing and share their findings with each other and their administrations. This could lead to better “backwards design” from the student experience so that we have more engaged, alert, and balanced students sitting (or standing) in our classes.

4. Seat 21A by Grant Spainer

Grant Spainer has the quintessential travel story of finding an inconvenience caused by someone that turns into a gentle reminder that you get to choose how you respond, sometimes with unexpected results.

Shy of the ALL CAPS OUTRAGE, I’ve had the experience of sitting next to the lady in seat 21A a number of times. This one stays with me. (http://peopleinpassing.com/2008/08/11/perspective/) Be open to the randomness of life and roll with it. You’ll live longer and be happier about it. Everyone has a story, often more baggage laden than your own.

And a quote:

“We are prisoners of our own metaphors, metaphorically speaking” – R. Buckminster Fuller

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For your consideration – Newsletter

Trying something new…

I recently heard an interview with Maria Popova (@brainpicker) where she discussed her writings as “an Annotated Reading” and I really enjoyed the sound of that. Since switching primarily to E-books and digital reading, I annotate and highlight constantly and would love to share more of what I read.

Here is the inaugural intro email:

This newsletter is inspired by many people, ideas, and things. The initial inspiration for getting me to just do it goes to Alexis Madrigal (@alexismadrigal) and his great newsletter 5 Intriguing Things. Before that I had always enjoyed Nat Torkington and O’Reilly Radar’s 4 Short Links. I love the format and the brevity. It is longer than a tweet and shorter than a blog post with the potential for some imagery and a convenient package size and delivery. It is tuned from the author’s interest without too much more than “This is cool/interesting/thought provoking and you should check it out”

I consume a huge amount of information on a wide variety of topics and come across lots of great things I’d like to share. I usually just send some of the things I find to a few friends it relates to most. However, I think there might be more people interested in the things I find interesting. Who knows where this goes. For now it is another collection of words and thoughts into the void that I hope to use as a tool for thinking.

I plan on publishing this newsletter twice a week with a few of the tidbits I find most interesting. This is an experiment and will evolve as I figure out what I’m doing. Please unsubscribe and accept my apologies if it is not something you are interested in receiving.

Thanks for reading, I hope you find some value in it.

-Brad

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Digital Footprint – Digital Legacy

travels_antwerp

 

Here’s a question I’ve been spending some time on lately. What kind of a digital footprint do I want to leave when I pass? Consider it a legacy, an archive, a portion of the hive mind, or just a really convoluted and intricate scrapbook of thoughts and interests.

This blog will serve as one piece of it. This is my most articulate public thinking. However there are many other aspects of the Internet public and private record that I will want preserved so that my kids can peruse the things I was interested in or thought about and use them against me as I grow older.

The majority of my time, since the dawn of the Internet, has been focused on the issues of privacy, security, and risk. Combine that with being a fairly high self-monitor and it leads to a pretty conservative presence on the public Internet. Oh, don’t forget the pervasive irrational fear of being wrong or interpreted incorrectly, those will keep you from writing things down as well but I’ve written about that before.

Most of these tools I use to assist in mediating my information flow but, since Benjamin was born, I’ve taken a little more care to preserve more of my day to day thoughts and history. I would highly recommend all the tools here for use regardless off your parental status. Here are some of the tools I use:

WordPress: This blog http://peopleinpassing.com/

Goodreads: It’s my digital bookshelf. I’ve done my best to archive all the books I’ve owned and read at GoodReads and I use it to keep track of all the interesting books I’ve heard about but have yet to read as well. Depending on what condition my physical library is in later on in life, I think this will come in handy for all concerned.

Evernote: I use Evernote quite heavily for capturing the things that interest me on a day to day basis. I used to use Delicious.com pretty heavily but it pales in comparison to the utility of Evernote (and you can import all your old links.) I use tons of other services but Evernote is my aggregation point. It has lots of features to integrate with other services and for those that don’t natively integrate there’s “If-This-Then-That” (ifttt.com).

Facebook: I’m generally a terrible Facebook user. I don’t check it for days or weeks, don’t respond to messages or friend requests in a timely manner, rarely post to it and even more rarely post anything personal. Still, looking back at the activity log there are some interesting “likes” and comments in the feed.

Gmail:  The archive… mostly of subscription, Google alerts, distribution groups, etc… I’ve been writing letters to Benjamin since he was born. Not as many as I’d like of course. I’d like him to have more tidbits like “4/13/14 you combined “Daddy” and “Go” along with your finger pointed toward the door so you could play with your trucks by yourself.” I’ll continually try and be better about that.

Twitter:  I’m generally a worse Twitter user than Facebook user. Maybe this will change with time. Early on I had to ration my access to it. I generally only follow people who share information (ie. links) and there were limited ways to focus the firehose so I would end up with two dozen tabs of interesting things open to “read later” and I wouldn’t get anything done. I’m starting to use it more as a tool to reach out to people in fields I have no business dabbling in.

Flickr:  My photo archive. Once maintained and curated but that was long ago when I was heavily into photography and travelling (kind of like this blog). Maybe sometime in the future I will return to maintaining it but that will likely be years from now.

If at some point he’s interested in it, it will be there, time-stamped, tagged and waiting. If not I’m no worse for the effort. What tools do you use? What will you want your kids or the world to know about you? What kind of information legacy do you want to leave behind?

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Try Harder.

heavy

“Try Harder” is something that often comes into my mind; often because I need to remind myself, less so that I feel the need to explain what it means to some unspecified listener.

Sometimes wisdom comes in tiny one or two-word packages that can take years to unpack and appreciate. Imagine struggling against a problem or goal, be it physical or academic, real or virtual, reaching the end of your wits, then turning to someone for a suggestion and receiving only “Try Harder” as advice. I can think of a few colorful two-word replies to that seemingly dismissive response. Let’s assume though that it’s not dismissive. Let’s assume it is what’s required.

tryharder_blog

The simple act of trying harder means focusing your effort. It’s not necessarily brute forcing your way through a problem or project, but being more mindful of the goal. Not all endeavors require an aggressive redoubling of effort.

Consider meditation, for example:

At it’s core meditation is a practice of calming the mind, and forcefully trying harder to meditate is obviously counterproductive. If an effort to calm the mind results in an internal shouting match consisting of you yelling at your mind to shut up, the point is lost. Mindfully trying harder means matching the appropriate method to the task at hand. In this case, trying harder to calm the mind may involve conjuring exceptional patience with yourself as you struggle to actually not do something.

Sometimes, however, Try Harder is exactly that. Bear down and push, go beyond your comfort zone, go to that place you’re afraid of. There’s rest at the end, but you have to get there first. In physical fitness, it could be lifting more than you ever have by focusing on technique, or it might be running faster than your best time by not giving in to that internal voice saying “It’s okay to quit.

Try Harder means discipline, progressions, perseverance. Ten minutes of focus today, eleven tomorrow, fourteen the day after; 100lbs overhead today, 120 next week, 175 five weeks later. Even when there are setbacks you keep trying harder, you keep fighting to keep or gain ground.

Tracking progress and effort is key to growth. If you don’t know where you’re at or where you’ve been, how can you have any clear idea of where you’re going?

This all takes effort. None of this is easy. All of this requires you to Try Harder.

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Letters to Benjamin

Tastes like baby
Not too long after Benjamin was born I came across this video [http://bit.ly/kNGhOy]. I think it was around fathers day. Anyway, I loved the idea and immediately set up a Gmail account for our little guy. Since then, Summer and I have been sending him emails with letters, pictures, video, etc…Sometimes we tell him about his day, sometimes we tell him about things that are important to us, sometimes we just say hi. It’s a digital time capsule and we hope it will be interesting to him at some point in his life.

 

Here is a letter I sent him recently about writing:

 

Benjamin,

I love you SO much! Just wanted to get that said before I started saying other things.

 

You are an amazing little guy and it is such a joy to be able to watch you grow into your own person.

 

Writing. I haven’t written you nearly enough. I have years to write you before you will even have a chance to read these, but I still would like to be better about telling you things about yourself as you grow up and about me as I grow up. Note: You are always growing up. All your life experiences add up to make you who you are at any given moment. So it’s never done. You are never fully “grown up”.

 

Writing. I will let you know that I plan to put emphasis on writing while you’re “growing up”. You will likely grow up in a world of 10 Billion people. With that many people it is hard to have your voice heard. Writing is one of the best possible ways to communicate your ideas. No matter what you choose to do with your life, no matter what interest or field of endeavor you decide to spend your time on. Learning to write well, to communicate well, will help you beyond measure.

 

I once read in a Stephen King book about writing that “writing is the closest thing we have to telepathy”. One mind speaking directly to another across time and space. Writing is an art and words have power. The right words in the right order and at the right time, stronger still.

 

Writing causes you to organize your thoughts, arguments, ideas. I’m attempting to do this now. You can learn a great deal about yourself from writing. Sometimes until you truly spend time explaining why you feel a certain way (even if just to yourself) you won’t understand the reason. Knowing why you believe what you believe is important. You may start out a writing project believing one thing, and finish convinced of another. When writing stories you may be surprised to find characters and themes that draw themselves out on the page. Characters you never expected to meet can assume critical roles. This happens in life as well but that is for another email.

 

Before this gets too wordy (I do that, explain too much. I’m sure you’ve probably noticed by now. My father did it too.) I will summarize with this final thought. You are now almost 15 months old. You are sleeping soundly in your crib upstairs. It’s well past midnight and because of writing I’m able to send my thoughts to you through time and space. You will be different when you read them and so will I, but you’ll always know your Daddy was up late talking to you before you could speak, because he loves you. (sappy ending but true).

 

Love,
Dad.

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Yoda was wrong

yodado

“Do, or do not, there is no try.” – Yoda

 

I don’t believe that’s true. Do or do not implies knowledge or skill already established. A binary choice that requires little effort. There is always “try”. Especially in the doing. It would almost be better said “Try, or do not” period. For without “try” there is no “do”. Do or do not is trite and absolutist. In all efforts there is effort, the trying makes it so. You can “do” with little effort or enthusiasm or skill and can say you have “done”. To what degree you have “done” is not measured or established.

 

To try is to strive, to push, to endeavor. To try is to be bad at something and know that if you make the effort, you will improve. Trying is what life is made of. Whether it is starting something new, getting better at something established, or brushing up on something old. Trying is the essence of making life worthwhile.


“Do or do not” is for bungee jumping and skydiving. It is for knowing that once you cross the threshold that there is only one result to whatever degree of success. While that total commitment is admirable. There is a lot of try that goes into that one moment.

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